After 9 years of conflict, Iran is the decision-maker in Syria

The town of Afis, in Syria鈥檚 Idlib province, has sustained widespread destruction due to heavy fighting and airstrikes by pro-Syrian regime forces. (AFP)
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  • Foreign players backing the opposition have come to terms with Assad staying in power

LONDON: Almost 118,000 civilian deaths, 6.6 million internally displaced, 5.6 million refugees worldwide, four peace conferences, nine years, one war, one country: Syria.

What started off as peaceful protests against President Bashar Assad quickly escalated into a bloody proxy war involving the US, Russia, Iran and Turkey.
Nine years and hundreds of thousands of deaths later, foreign players backing the opposition have come to terms with Assad staying in power.
But one would not have expected such an outcome in 2013, with most of the country split among anti-Assad groups and Kurdish militias.
That year, then-US President Barack Obama delivered his now-infamous 鈥渞ed line鈥� speech following the Assad regime鈥檚 use of chemical weapons in an attack on the rebel-held Damascus suburb of Eastern Ghouta. Also that year, Iran deployed 4,000 troops to Syria in support of Assad.
鈥淲ithout Iran and its proxies, Assad wouldn鈥檛 be in power,鈥� Phillip Smyth, Soref fellow at the Washington Institute, told Arab News.
鈥淚ran鈥檚 Shiite militias both helped rebuild what was left of the SAA (Syrian Arab Army), allied militias, and provided the bulk of the forces needed to not only retake territory, but hold many strategic areas. Iran鈥檚 involvement was the key game-changer for the conflict.鈥�
Now Iran and its proxies 鈥� namely its strongest, Hezbollah 鈥� run the show, with only one option in mind: Total military victory.
On Nov. 18, 2015, Iran鈥檚 Deputy Foreign Minister for Arab and African Affairs Hossein Amir Abdollahian said: 鈥淚f not for Iran鈥檚 support for the regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad and the efforts of its military advisers, Damascus would have fallen during the first three years of the war.鈥�
Former Syrian Brig. Gen. Ahmed Rahhal told Arab News: 鈥淚t鈥檚 Iran and Hezbollah who are fighting today and making all the political and military decisions.鈥�
He added: 鈥淭he Assad regime obeys the Iranian military and follows the Iranian approach, and Iran accepts only the military option 鈥� Iran is unable to find a solution, but is rather capable of obstructing all solutions.鈥�

KEYNOTES

鈥� March 15, 2011: Start of Syrian uprising.

鈥� May 6, 2011: Hezbollah intervenes in Syria, backing Assad regime.

鈥� June 9, 2013: Iran sends 4,000 troops to Syria to back Assad.

鈥� Aug. 21, 2013: First chemical weapons attack by Assad regime on Eastern Ghouta.

Alongside Hezbollah are Iran鈥檚 Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp. and its Quds Force. On Jan. 13, 2020, the Assad regime honored Qassem Soleimani 鈥� commander of the Quds Force, who was killed in Iraq on Jan. 3 by a US missile strike 鈥� with the 鈥淗ero of the Syrian Arab Republic鈥� medal, Iran鈥檚 Islamic Republic News Agency reported.
Ahmad Khasm, a 29-year-old human rights activist in northern Syria who was forcibly displaced from southern Idlib, told Arab News: 鈥淭he loss that I have is a decade of my life. I should鈥檝e had a family by now enjoying a youthful life, learning, and being with my family and friends in our hometown.鈥�
Smyth said: 鈥淭he conflict, while quite costly for Tehran, has provided benefits in terms of gained experience, and it gave Tehran the first real taste in how to deploy a multinational force under its command.鈥�

(Zouhir AlShimale contributed to this article)